Modeling decisions:

Most successful people are learning in real-time, making mistakes they can stomach if a bet goes wrong 100%, and then working hard to change the success probability, which they assume they can. The only thing that changes with time and success is the size and number of bets. What outsiders see as a significant risk is often a safe bet for them, and if it fails, it only makes them better at controlling the probability of success next time. It can be good to remember this when you try to model someone. They could be 100% wrong. However great they have been in the past. But can you handle similar risks? If yes, you can model their decisions and bets.

The only exception could be when you have nothing to loose…

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