Recently I was invited to give a session on blockchain by the Rotary club, and it was a great experience. I was pretty impressed by the number of people who turned up and stayed until the end and asked many questions in the future.

On the 16th of Feb, I wrote an internal message to my people about my thoughts on Dogecoin. The reaction to it by most who understand crypto was that it is a joke coin, and there is in no way profound.

Here is the utterly speculative story I had come up with DogeCoin. As of Feb 2021, this is what I am thinking. ( I could be wrong, so this is not investment advice, but sharing a thought process).

Everything started with an article in financial times where the author asked Elon to stop commenting on financial aspects and stick to rockets and cars.

“What an idiot,” I thought to myself and send out an email to him stating that he should have done some basic research on Elon before writing such things unless his goal was to spark reactions which seem to be the only goal these days of many journalists.

Paypal, co-founded by Elon Musk, is now worth $350 Billion. Surely someone who built something that goes so big knows a thing or two about money.

Elon’s vision with Paypal, which he often says the company failed to achieve its objective, was to drain money from all the banks into PayPal.

I believe Elon Musk sees the possibility to achieve just that in Dogecoin. What would someone who built PayPal do if he is to try again with a higher level of experience and maturity?

One of the questions I was asked during the session was why crypto investment is so volatile? Bitcoin and others are like investments in startups, which the ordinary person was not authorized to do hence unfamiliar to the wild swings. But that is where most profits are made.

Investors who make the most money from companies are investors before the IPO.

I see an Achilles heel in bitcoin – energy use. It is structured on how everyone competes to solve the puzzle and earn a coin and how it becomes harder and harder the more there is demand is a unique feature and a fatal flaw if it is attacked from an energy use perspective.

It is designed to become more complex and use more energy as demand keeps going up, and it looks like this angle of attack is a viable one for the next ten years.

I decided to write this blog because that is what is happening now. If Elon Musk gets behind Dogecoin as he seems to be doing, it can be improved to work on earth and Mars. If your time horizon is 20 years and more, where should the investment go?

Like every investment, things can change rapidly and time kills almost everything, including every advantage if they are not monitored and leveraged, but it surely looks like a new window has opened.